NFL betting market watch – Winter weather coming, Patriots-Bills total dropping


Winter weather is in the forecast for the Patriots-Bills showdown in Buffalo on Monday Night Football.

Midweek forecasts were calling for temperatures to drop into the upper-20s with winds gusting 15-25 mph, according to Weather.com. Stronger winds from 20 to 30 mph, along with rain and snow, are expected throughout the day.

The point spread and total on the game have been dropping this week. In early lines up last week, the Bills were listed as 4.5-point favorites with the total at 46. As of Wednesday, the line had dipped below three points at multiple sportsbooks and the total was down to 43.5. Caesars Sportsbook reported Wednesday that 84% of the early money bet on the total was on the under.

Here is this week’s look at the lines and betting action:


NFL market watch

For consistency, lines, totals and betting percentages are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. The betting percentages are not specific to the current line or total and are designed to provide a snapshot of the early action. The look-ahead lines were offered in advance of the previous week’s games. Most numbers were reopened Sunday night.

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (Thursday)

Last week’s look-ahead line: Cowboys -5, 48
Sunday: Cowboys -5.5, 47.5
Wednesday: Cowboys -4.5, 47.5
Spread action: 71% of bets and 58% of money wagered is on the Cowboys.
Total action: 52% of the bets and 53% of the money wagered is on the over.

Notes: Dallas will be without head coach Mike McCarthy and several members of the coaching staff due to COVID protocols. … ESPN’s Ed Werder reported Wednesday that Cowboys WR Amari Cooper is expected to play Thursday.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets

Last week’s look-ahead line: Eagles -6.5, 45
Sunday: Eagles -7, 46
Wednesday: Eagles -6.5, 45
Spread action: 67% of bets and 67% of money wagered is on the Eagles.
Total action: 74% of the bets are on the under, but 78% of the money wagered is on the over.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

Last week’s look-ahead line: Buccaneers -9.5, 50.5
Sunday: Buccaneers -10, 50
Wednesday: Buccaneers -11, 50.5
Spread action: 55% of bets and 88% of money wagered is on the Falcons.
Total action: 51% of the bets and 54% of the money wagered is on the under.

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears

Last week’s look-ahead line: Cardinals -7, 46.5
Sunday: Cardinals -7, 46
Wednesday: Cardinals -8, 45.5
Spread action: 79% of bets are on the Cardinals, but 80% of the money wagered is on the Bears.
Total action: 68% of the bets and 89% of the money wagered is on the under.

Notes: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the upper 30s, light rain and 13-mph winds.

Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals

Last week’s look-ahead line: Bengals -1.5, 48
Sunday: Bengals -2.5, 51
Wednesday: Bengals -3 (-120), 50.5
Spread action: 71% of bets are on the Bengals, but 52% of the money wagered is on the Chargers.
Total action: 62% of the bets are on the over, but 80% of the money wagered is on the under.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

Last week’s look-ahead line: Vikings -7.5, 48
Sunday: Vikings -7, 48
Wednesday: Vikings -7, 46.5
Spread action: 63% of bets and 67% of money wagered is on the Vikings.
Total action: 81% of the bets and 97% of the money wagered is on the under.

New York Giants at Miami Dolphins

Last week’s look-ahead line: Dolphins -2. 43.5
Sunday: Dolphins -2.5, 42.5
Wednesday: Dolphins -3, 42
Spread action: 74% of the bets and 94% of the money wagered is on the Dolphins.
Total action: 50% of the bets and 87% of the money wagered is on the under.

Notes: Giants QB Daniel Jones is uncertain for Sunday’s game because of a strained neck.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

Last week’s look-ahead line: Colts -7, 46.5
Sunday: Colts -7.5, 46
Wednesday: Colts -9, 46
Spread action: 85% of the bets and 97% of the money wagered is on the Colts.
Total action: 62% of the bets and 91% of the money wagered is on the under.

Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders

Last week’s look-ahead line: Raiders -1.5, 48
Sunday: Raiders -2.5, 49
Wednesday: Raiders -2.5, 49.5
Spread action: 80% of the bets and 72% of the money wagered is on the Raiders.
Total action: 62% of the bets are on the under, but 56% of the money wagered is on the over.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Rams

Last week’s look-ahead line: Rams -12, 48
Sunday: Rams -13.5, 44.5
Wednesday: Rams -13, 48
Spread action: 63% of bets and 86% of the money wagered is on the Rams.
Total action: 85% of the bets and 98% of the money wagered is on the under.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Last week’s look-ahead line: Ravens -3, 44.5
Sunday: Ravens -3.5, 44.5
Wednesday: Ravens -4.5, 44
Spread action: 64% of the bets and 54% of the money wagered is on the Ravens.
Total action: 69% of the bets and 91% of the money wagered is on the under.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Last week’s look-ahead line: Pick ’em, 46
Sunday: 49ers -2.5, 46.5
Wednesday: 49ers -3 (-120), 45.5
Spread action: 85% of the bets and 66% of the money wagered is on the 49ers.
Total action: 76% of the bets and 74% of the money wagered is on the under.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Last week’s look-ahead line: Chiefs -9.5, 49.5
Sunday: Chiefs -10, 49
Wednesday: Chiefs -10, 47
Spread action: 72% of the bets and 50% of the money wagered is on the Chiefs.
Total action: 79% of the bets and 78% of the money wagered is on the under.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (Monday)

Last week’s look-ahead line: Bills -3.5, 46
Sunday: Bills -3, 45
Wednesday: Bills -2.5, 44
Spread action: 69% of the bets are on the Patriots, but 66% of the money wagered is on the Bills.
Total action: 58% of the bets and 84% of the money wagered is on the under.

Notes: The Patriots have covered the spread in six consecutive games, the longest active streak in the NFL. New England is 35-20-1 against the spread as a road underdog under coach Bill Belichick.



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