NFL Week 13 betting nuggets


The Week 13 slate is highlighted by the Buffalo Bills hosting the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football. New England has won and covered six straight games to take over first place in the AFC East. Buffalo still enters the week as a slight favorite to win the division at -125.

Both teams are looking up at the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC standings. Baltimore visits Pittsburgh in the largest home underdog spot in Ben Roethlisberger’s career.

Meanwhile, the NFL’s top team, the Arizona Cardinals, look to improve to 7-0 both outright and ATS on the road as they visit the Chicago Bears. Arizona can become the third team in the Super Bowl era to win seven straight road games by double digits.

Season Stats

Favorites: 7-8 ATS (8-7 SU), 77-100-1 ATS this season (106-71-1 SU)

Road teams: 5-10 ATS (6-9 SU); 101-78-1 ATS this season (90-89-1 SU)

Unders: 8-7 (100-78-2 this season)

Best records ATS: Green Bay (10-2), Dallas (8-3), Arizona (8-3)

Worst record ATS: New York Jets (3-8)

Best over team: Indianapolis (8-4)

Best under team: Seattle (9-1-1)

Teams favored in every game: Kansas City, Tampa Bay

Teams to be underdog in every game: Detroit, New York Jets


Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at New York Jets, Sunday, 1 ET

  • New York is 9-17 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season, worst in the NFL.

  • New York is 2-8 ATS this season, the worst ATS record in the NFL this season.

  • New York is one of two teams to not be favored in a game this season, along with Detroit.

  • New York is 1-5 ATS on the road this season, tied with Tampa Bay for the worst road cover percentage in the NFL.

  • Philadelphia is 11-0 all-time against New York (10-1 ATS).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11) at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday, 1 ET

  • Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS on the road this season, tied with the New York Jets for the worst road cover percentage in the NFL. Its only cover on the road came last week against Indianapolis.

  • Atlanta has failed to cover four of its five home games this season.

  • Tom Brady is 6-1 ATS against Matt Ryan, including the playoffs.

  • Each of the last seven meetings between these two teams has gone over the total.

  • Atlanta is 0-3 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

Arizona Cardinals (-8) at Chicago Bears, Sunday, 1 ET

  • Arizona is 6-0 ATS on the road this season, the best road cover percentage in the NFL.

  • Chicago is 0-3 ATS as a home underdog this season.

  • Chicago has failed to cover in five of its past six games.

  • Chicago has failed to cover in each of its past four games against teams with winning records.

  • The under is 6-2 in Justin Fields starts.

Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3), Sunday, 1 ET

  • Cincinnati has failed to cover its last four home games.

  • Los Angeles has failed to cover in each of its past three games and is 1-5 ATS in its last six games.

  • Justin Herbert is 5-3 ATS (3-5 SU) as a road underdog in his career.

  • This is the fifth straight game Cincinnati has been favored in, its longest streak since the final five games of 2013.

Minnesota Vikings (-7) at Detroit Lions, Sunday, 1 ET

  • Detroit is the 17th team in the Super Bowl era to go winless through 11 games. Detroit is the only one of the 17 to have a winning record against the spread in that stretch. Detroit is 7-4 ATS this season, including 6-1 ATS when getting at least four points (five straight covers).

  • Detroit is one of two teams to not be favored in a game this season, along with the New York Jets.

  • Eight of Detroit’s last nine games have gone under the total.

  • Minnesota has played 10 one-score games, most in the NFL, including three overtime games and five games decided by three points or fewer.

  • Minnesota has covered four of its past five road games (4-2 ATS this season).

  • Minnesota has covered four of its past five coming off a straight-up loss.

  • Kirk Cousins has never been favored by more than 6.5 points on the road.

New York Giants at Miami Dolphins (-4), Sunday, 1 ET

  • Miami has covered four straight games. Miami has also covered each of its past three home games.

  • Miami is 5-1 ATS as a home favorite under Brian Flores.

  • New York is 4-1 ATS against teams with losing records this season.

  • New York is 9-3 ATS as a road underdog under Joe Judge.

Indianapolis Colts (-9) at Houston Texans, Sunday, 1 ET

  • Tyrod Taylor is 9-2 ATS in his last 11 starts including playoffs, dating back to 2017.

  • Tyrod Taylor is 8-3-1 ATS in his career when getting at least six points

  • Indianapolis has covered each of its past four road games.

  • Indianapolis has covered eight of its past 10 games against Houston.

  • Indianapolis is 5-1 ATS as a road favorite since the start of last season, the second-best cover percentage in the NFL over that span.

Washington at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5), Sunday, 4:05 ET

  • Las Vegas has failed to cover in each of its past three games in which the line fell between -3 and +3.

  • Washington is 1-5 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

  • Las Vegas has failed to cover in four of its past five home games.

  • Washington has covered three straight games after starting the season 1-7 ATS.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Rams (-13), Sunday 4:05 ET

  • Since the start of last season, Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite.

  • Each of Jacksonville’s last six games have gone under the total. The under is 9-2 in Jacksonville games.

  • Jacksonville is 2-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog this season with an outright win over Buffalo as a 15.5-point underdog. Jacksonville is 3-1 ATS when getting at least seven points.

Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday, 4:25 ET

  • Ben Roethlisberger has never been more than a 3.5-point home underdog in his career. Baltimore has never been more than a 3.5-point road favorite in Pittsburgh.

  • Baltimore is 3-6 ATS as a favorite this season and 2-6 ATS in Lamar Jackson starts (all as at least a three-point favorite).

  • Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS at home this season, tied with Kansas City for the worst cover percentage at home this season.

  • Baltimore is 10-1-1 ATS over its past 12 games in which the spread falls between +3 and -3.

  • Since the start of the 2018 season, Pittsburgh is 16-5-1 ATS as an underdog.

  • Each of Baltimore’s last four road games have gone under the total.

San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks, Sunday, 4:25 ET

  • Seattle games are 9-1-1 to the under this season, including 6-0-1 after a loss and 7-0 in conference games. The under is 14-2 in Russell Wilson‘s last 16 regular-season starts.

  • Seattle is 2-6 ATS in Russell Wilson starts this season, failing to cover in the last four instances.

  • Seattle is 16-7 ATS against San Francisco under Pete Carroll.

  • Seattle is 15-7 ATS as a home underdog under Pete Carroll. Russell Wilson is 5-4 outright and 6-3 ATS as a home underdog.

  • Each of Seattle’s last four home games have gone under the total.

  • Jimmy Garoppolo is 9-0 outright and 6-3 ATS as a road favorite in his career (3-1 ATS this season).

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5), Sunday, 8:20 ET

  • This is the second-largest underdog spot for Denver this season. In Week 9, Denver upset Dallas as a 10-point road underdog.

  • Nine of Denver’s 11 games have gone under the total this season.

  • Kansas City is 1-5 ATS at home this season, tied with Pittsburgh for the worst cover percentage at home this season.

  • Kansas City has covered eight of its past 10 games against Denver.

  • Kansas City is 12-8 ATS against AFC West opponents when Patrick Mahomes starts.

  • Andy Reid is 14-8 ATS in his career after a bye, but only 1-3 ATS in the past four seasons.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-2.5), Monday, 8 ET on ESPN

  • New England has the longest active cover streak in the league at six straight games.

  • Bill Belichick is 35-20-1 ATS as a road underdog in his time in New England.

  • Buffalo has covered each of its last five games in the month of December or later.

  • Buffalo is 4-0-1 ATS in its past five games against AFC East opponents.

  • Bill Belichick is 15-5-1 ATS in his career at Buffalo (6-1 ATS in last seven; 4-1 ATS as underdog).



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