NFL Week 14 betting nuggets


Week 14 features several big-name quarterbacks getting points. Lamar Jackson looks to get his sixth straight outright regular-season win as an underdog in Cleveland. Josh Allen looks for his sixth straight cover and fourth-straight win as an underdog.

Arguably the two biggest games of the week feature the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hosting the Buffalo Bills and the Arizona Cardinals hosting the Los Angeles Rams. It’s just the second time this season the Bills and Rams have been underdogs. Both won by double digits the only other times they were underdogs. The Bills and Rams hope to continue the trend of road underdogs covering games this season. Road dogs are covering at a 59.8 percent clip, the highest rate in the Super Bowl era. As of Thursday morning, 10 teams are installed as road underdogs.

Season stats

Favorites: 8-6 ATS last week (85-106-1 ATS this season)

Road teams: 8-6 ATS last week (109-84-1 ATS this season)

Unders: 9-5 (109-83-2 this season)

Best ATS record: Green Bay (10-2), Arizona (9-3), Dallas (9-3)

Worst ATS record: New York Jets (3-9), Jacksonville (4-8), Chicago (4-8)

Teams favored in every game: Kansas City, Tampa Bay

Teams underdog in every game: Detroit, New York Jets

Dallas Cowboys (-4) at Washington Football Team, Sunday at 1 ET

  • Dallas is 9-3 ATS this season, including 5-1 ATS on the road. Dallas is 1-2 ATS in its last three games and 2-3 ATS in its last five games after starting 7-0 ATS.

  • Dallas is 7-0 ATS in conference games this season.

  • Washington has won and covered four straight games after starting the season 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS.

New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at New York Jets, Sunday at 1 ET

  • New York is a league-worst 3-9 ATS this season.

  • New Orleans is 0-5 ATS against teams with losing records and 1-4 ATS as a favorite. New Orleans is 0-4 ATS and 1-3 SU as a favorite of at least three points this season.

  • Both teams are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-10), Sunday at 1 ET

  • Tennessee is 3-0 ATS after a bye under Mike Vrabel, and it is 5-0-1 ATS after a bye since 2015.

  • Both teams have failed to cover three straight games.

  • Tennessee has been a double-digit favorite once this season. It lost outright to Houston in Week 11 as a 10-point home favorite.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-3), Sunday at 1 ET

  • Over the last five seasons, Cam Newton is 10-18 ATS as a favorite (14-14 SU). Each of the last seven times he was favored as Carolina’s starting quarterback, Carolina lost outright (0-2 this season).

  • Carolina is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games after starting 3-0 ATS.

  • Carolina has failed to cover four straight home games, and it has failed to cover four straight games as a favorite. Carolina is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite this season.

  • Atlanta’s last four games have gone under the total.

  • Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.

  • Fourteen of the last 17 meetings have gone under the total.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-2), Sunday at 1 ET

  • Baltimore has covered four straight meetings.

  • Cleveland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games (0-3 ATS in last three games).

  • Four straight Baltimore games have gone under the total.

  • Lamar Jackson is 8-1 ATS and 7-2 outright as a regular-season underdog with five straight wins. Baltimore is 2-0 outright as an underdog this season.

  • Home favorites of under a field goal are 6-13 outright and ATS this season.

Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) at Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 ET

  • Seattle games are 9-2-1 to the under this season, including 5-0-1 on the road.

  • Houston’s last four games have gone under the total.

  • Seattle is 2-4 outright and ATS as a favorite this season (1-4 in last five games). Seattle is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as a road favorite dating back to last season (1-2 ATS this season).

  • Seattle is the second team in the Super Bowl era to be at least a 7-point road favorite in a December game despite having a winning percentage of .333 or below. The other was Pittsburgh (3-8-1) in 1966, which was a 7-point favorite over the New York Giants.

New York Giants at Los Angeles Chargers (-10), Sunday at 4:05 ET

  • Justin Herbert has never been a double-digit favorite. Herbert is 3-7 ATS when favored by at least three points.

  • New York has covered three straight games after a loss.

  • Joe Judge is 9-4 ATS as a road underdog but only 1-3 ATS in his last four games in that spot.

  • New York’s last six games have gone under the total.

Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos (-8), Sunday at 4:05 ET

  • Detroit is 8-4 ATS this season despite its 1-10-1 outright record. Detroit is 7-1 ATS when getting at least four points with six straight covers.

  • Detroit has covered four straight games, and it has covered four straight road games.

  • In the last 15 seasons, teams coming off their first win of the season are 12-4 ATS in their next game in Week 10 or later. Two of the last three teams in that spot won the following game outright as at least 6.5-point underdogs (2020 New York Jets, 2019 Miami).

  • The under is 6-0 when Denver covers games this season.

  • Denver is 3-0 ATS when favored by at least six points under Vic Fangio (2-0 ATS this season).

San Francisco 49ers (-1) at Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday at 4:25 ET

  • Jimmy Garoppolo is 11-3 ATS and 10-4 SU as a regular-season underdog. He is 9-1 outright and 6-4 ATS as a road favorite, but the only outright loss came last week in Seattle.

  • Cincinnati is 3-2 outright and ATS as an underdog this season.

  • San Francisco is 1-4 ATS this season against teams with winning records.

  • Five of the last six Cincinnati games have gone over the total.

  • Joe Burrow is 8-2 ATS in his career after a loss.

Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5), Sunday at 4:25 ET

  • Josh Allen is 18-8-1 ATS in regular-season road games.

  • Tampa Bay has covered four straight games as a home favorite (4-1 ATS this season as home favorite).

  • Tom Brady is 21-6-1 ATS in regular-season home games when not laying at least four points. Brady is 9-5-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 points or less.

  • Tom Brady is 21-12-1 ATS in his career against Buffalo. He has never been less than a four-point home favorite against Buffalo (18th home meeting, first outside of New England).

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-12.5), Sunday at 8:20 ET

  • Green Bay is the first double-digit favorite in a Sunday Night game this season. Double-digit favorites are 2-6 ATS in Sunday Night games in the last 10 seasons and 7-15 ATS in the last 20 seasons.

  • Green Bay is 10-2 ATS this season, the best mark in the league, including 5-0 ATS at home.

  • Green Bay has covered all five meetings since 2019, and is 20-7 ATS against Chicago in Aaron Rodgers starts (including playoffs). Rodgers has never been favored by more than 12.5 points against Chicago, and he is 1-3 ATS (2-2 SU) when laying at least nine points against Chicago.

  • The largest spread in this series in the last 20 seasons is 12.5 (Green Bay was favored by 12.5 in 2011; won by 14). Prior to that, Green Bay was a 13-point favorite over Chicago in 1998 (won by 6).

  • Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5), Monday at 8:15 ET on ESPN

  • Arizona is 9-3 ATS this season, including 4-0 ATS in division games.

  • Los Angeles is 8-1 ATS against Arizona under Sean McVay. However, Arizona’s only cover came in Week 4 of this season when the Cardinals upset the Rams 37-20.

  • Los Angeles has failed to cover its last three road games.

  • Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

  • Sean McVay is 7-6 ATS as a regular-season underdog, including a win over Tampa Bay in their only underdog spot this season. The over is 11-2 when McVay’s team is an underdog.

  • Home favorites of under a field goal are 6-13 outright and ATS this season.

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